# Curvo Journal

> Curvo Journal is an independent publication covering Economic data & macro releases. Focus: Treasury yields, auctions and the curve. Published by Independent Journal; sponsored by Adamson Brothers Corp. (see the About page). Articles are drafted from primary sources with AI assistance and reviewed under our editorial policy. Not investment advice.

## Usage
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- Quotation and citation are welcome with attribution to the publication and a link to the article URL.
- News articles are time-sensitive; check the publication date. Guides are evergreen and updated over time.

## Sections
- [Latest news](https://curvojournal.com/): newest articles first
- [Guides](https://curvojournal.com/guides/): evergreen explainers
- [Topics](https://curvojournal.com/topics/): topic index
- [Writers](https://curvojournal.com/authors/): bylines and beats
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## Guides
- [Bond Prices and Yields Explained: Why They Move Opposite](https://curvojournal.com/bond-prices-and-yields-explained/): Bond prices and yields explained: why they move in opposite directions, how coupon, maturity and duration matter, and how to read yield quotes on Treasuries.
- [How Treasury Auctions Work: Bids, Pricing and Results](https://curvojournal.com/how-treasury-auctions-work/): How Treasury auctions work: how the government sells bills, notes and bonds, how competitive and noncompetitive bids differ, and how to read auction results.
- [Inverted Yield Curve Explained: What It Is and What It Signals](https://curvojournal.com/inverted-yield-curve-explained/): Inverted yield curve explained: why short-term Treasury yields can top long-term yields, which spreads analysts track, and why an inversion is a signal and not a forecast.
- [How the Treasury Yield Curve Works: A Plain-English Guide](https://curvojournal.com/how-treasury-yield-curve-works/): How the Treasury yield curve works: what it plots, how Treasury builds the par yield curve from market prices, and how to read its shape, slope and spreads.

## Recent articles
- [Soft Korean CPI and a $628B Forecast Test the Bond Market](https://curvojournal.com/bond-market-korea-cpi-treasury-borrowing-forecast/) (2026-11-03): South Korean inflation came in below forecasts for October just as Wall Street weighs a $628 billion Treasury borrowing estimate and Bessent's next moves.
- [Mexico's Growth Beat Tests the Bond Market's Rate Views](https://curvojournal.com/mexico-growth-beat-bond-market-rate-cuts/) (2026-10-30): Mexico's economy slowed less than expected in Q3, easing pressure for rate cuts. What the surprise means for the bond market and Treasury yields, and what to watch.
- [Brazil's $1.8 Trillion Debt Puts Bond Market Focus on Interest](https://curvojournal.com/brazil-debt-bond-market-interest-costs/) (2026-10-29): Brazil's debt has reached $1.8 trillion as interest costs surge, according to Investing.com. What the milestone means for the bond market and what to watch next.
- [Treasury yields face Fed statement and a record AI import wave](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-yields-fed-statement-ai-imports-trade-deficit/) (2026-10-28): The Fed issued its FOMC statement as a report showed the US goods trade deficit widening on record AI-related imports. What it means for Treasury yields.
- [$69B Treasury Auction Sees Indirect Demand Fall 12.1 Points](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-auction-2-year-indirect-demand-drop/) (2026-10-27): A $69 billion 2-year note sale saw indirect demand drop 12.1 points, just as the Fed decides ahead of GDP and PCE data. Here is what it means for yields.
- [Anthropic IPO Filing and $213B Supply Test the Bond Market](https://curvojournal.com/anthropic-ipo-filing-bond-market-treasury-supply/) (2026-10-26): An Anthropic IPO filing lands as Treasury readies $213 billion in note sales around the Fed decision, putting the bond market and AI spending in focus.
- [Treasury yields slide as Russian diesel heads to the US](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-yields-russian-diesel-us-bond-market/) (2026-10-23): Treasury yields have fallen over two weeks as the bond market tests the inflation story, and a tanker of Russian diesel bound for New York adds a new energy angle.
- [Midterm Stakes Meet Treasury Yields as Bond Market Waits](https://curvojournal.com/midterm-elections-treasury-yields-bond-market/) (2026-10-22): With the midterms days away, the bond market is weighing how election outcomes could shape fiscal policy, Treasury yields and the curve, as France and the 2-year draw attention.
- [Are Treasury Yields Pricing In a Fed Policy Mistake?](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-yields-fed-policy-mistake-bond-market/) (2026-10-21): An Investing.com analysis asks whether the bond market is pricing a Fed misstep, as stronger crude demand and India's 7.9% output gain add to the growth debate.
- [10-Year Treasury Yield Slips as Housing Starts Fall 5.2%](https://curvojournal.com/10-year-treasury-yield-slips-housing-starts/) (2026-10-20): The 10-year Treasury yield eased Tuesday after housing starts fell 5.2%, a day after hot inflation data pushed the benchmark to a closely watched technical level.
- [Treasury auction: $95 billion 13-week bill sale in focus](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-auction-13-week-bill-95-billion/) (2026-10-19): The Treasury sold a $95 billion 13-week bill Monday. Here is how the Treasury auction fits the bond market, short-term yields and a soft housing backdrop.
- [Deficit Hits $1.99 Trillion as Treasury Yields Stay Elevated](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-yields-deficit-1-99-trillion/) (2026-10-16): The US fiscal 2026 deficit reached $1.99 trillion, the largest in five years, just as a hot CPI report pushed the 10-year yield above its 2007 high.
- [Diesel Surge Feeds Inflation Worries Weighing on 10-Year Treasury](https://curvojournal.com/diesel-surge-inflation-10-year-treasury-yield/) (2026-10-15): Diesel's climb is starting to push other prices higher, and bond analysts say inflation worries have the 10-year Treasury yield stretched above fair value.
- [Fed Hike Talk Jolts Treasury Yields at the Short End](https://curvojournal.com/fed-hike-talk-treasury-yields-short-end/) (2026-10-14): Fed's Daly says rate hikes are likely needed but not urgent, while 2-year Treasury yields jump 12 bps and October hike odds reach 45%, per Investing.com.
- [Fed Posts Discount Rate Minutes as Treasury Yields, Housing Watched](https://curvojournal.com/fed-discount-rate-minutes-treasury-yields-2/) (2026-10-13): The Fed released minutes of three discount rate meetings from August and September, as September home sales rose and mortgage rates clouded the outlook.
- [10-Year Treasury Yield Holds at 5.24% Ahead of September CPI](https://curvojournal.com/10-year-treasury-yield-5-24-percent-ahead-of-cpi/) (2026-10-12): The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.24% and the 2s10s spread narrowed to 44 basis points, with September CPI due Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
- [Who Absorbs Duration Risk as Treasury Yields Climb Past 5%?](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-yields-duration-risk-who-absorbs/) (2026-10-12): The 10-year Treasury yield rose 41 basis points in a month to 5.24%. Mortgage hedging and heavy issuance raise a question: who absorbs the duration risk?
- [Treasury Auctions Explained: Bid-to-Cover, Tails and Why They Matter](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-auctions-explained-bid-to-cover-tail/) (2026-10-10): How a Treasury auction works, what bid-to-cover, tails and indirect bidders signal, and why recent 10-year and 30-year sales matter beyond the bond market.
- [Consumer Sentiment Falls to 46.3 as Inflation Worries Hit Bonds](https://curvojournal.com/consumer-sentiment-46-inflation-expectations-bond-market/) (2026-10-09): Michigan's October sentiment index fell to 46.3 and long-run inflation expectations rose to 3.5%, a reading that bears on Treasury yields and the Fed's next move.
- [Fed Hike Odds Fade for October, but Treasury Yields Stay High](https://curvojournal.com/fed-rate-hike-odds-treasury-yields-october/) (2026-10-09): Futures put the odds of an October Fed hike at 22.1%, down from 64.2%, yet 2-, 10- and 30-year Treasury yields rose after a weak September jobs report.
- [Analyst Sees 10-Year Treasury Near 6% as Real Yields Climb](https://curvojournal.com/10-year-treasury-real-yields-6-percent/) (2026-10-08): One analyst argues rising real yields point to a 5.8% to 6% 10-year Treasury yield, as the Fed's September minutes tilt hawkish and a 10-year auction clears.
- [Bond Market Rate Volatility Keeps Spreads Wide Ahead of 30-Year Sale](https://curvojournal.com/bond-market-rate-volatility-30-year-auction/) (2026-10-08): ING says elevated rate volatility, set off by the 10-year Treasury passing 5%, keeps European bond spreads wide as the US sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds.
- [Bessent's 'House' Remark Meets a 5.3% 10-Year Treasury Yield](https://curvojournal.com/bessent-house-bluff-10-year-treasury-yield/) (2026-10-07): Treasury Secretary Bessent said he was 'the house' on Sept. 8; a month later the 30-year yield hit 5.70% and the 10-year 5.32%, the highest since 2002.
- [Fed Minutes Are Out: What Treasury Yields Will Look For](https://curvojournal.com/fed-minutes-september-2026-treasury-yields/) (2026-10-07): The Fed released minutes of its September 15-16, 2026 meeting. Here is what bond investors typically parse in them, and what to watch for Treasury yields next.
- [Treasury Auction: $39 Billion 10-Year Sale With Yields Above 5%](https://curvojournal.com/treasury-auction-10-year-39-billion-volatility/) (2026-10-07): Treasury sells $39 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday with the 10-year yield above 5% and the Fed set to release its September minutes. What to watch.

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